Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 104,533
2 South Dakota 91,461
3 Iowa 73,869
4 Wisconsin 71,510
5 Nebraska 67,304
6 Utah 61,841
7 Montana 59,248
8 Illinois 58,437
9 Wyoming 58,409
10 Idaho 57,995
11 Minnesota 57,161
12 Kansas 55,166
13 Rhode Island 54,661
14 Tennessee 54,469
15 Arkansas 52,789
16 Mississippi 51,882
17 Missouri 51,797
18 Alabama 51,578
19 Indiana 51,557
20 Louisiana 51,140
21 Nevada 50,423
22 Oklahoma 50,412
23 New Mexico 47,413
24 Florida 46,939
25 Arizona 46,455
26 Alaska 44,988
27 Texas 43,988
28 Georgia 43,229
29 South Carolina 42,517
30 Kentucky 41,920
31 Colorado 41,463
32 Michigan 39,535
33 New Jersey 38,699
34 Delaware 37,322
35 Ohio 36,794
36 North Carolina 35,146
37 New York 33,929
38 Maryland 33,326
39 Connecticut 33,308
40 Massachusetts 33,254
41 California 31,733
42 District of Columbia 30,726
43 Pennsylvania 29,111
44 Virginia 28,125
45 West Virginia 27,239
46 Puerto Rico 27,220
47 Washington 22,977
48 Oregon 18,174
49 New Hampshire 16,007
50 Hawaii 12,747
51 Maine 8,909
52 Vermont 6,793

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,243
2 Minnesota 1,080
3 Wyoming 1,080
4 New Mexico 864
5 Nebraska 839
6 Tennessee 785
7 Montana 773
8 Indiana 761
9 North Dakota 752
10 Alaska 743
11 Kentucky 733
12 Colorado 706
13 Arizona 703
14 Illinois 695
15 South Dakota 683
16 Idaho 682
17 Ohio 667
18 Wisconsin 650
19 Utah 641
20 Kansas 623
21 Iowa 621
22 Missouri 617
23 Nevada 616
24 Michigan 586
25 Connecticut 577
26 Delaware 572
27 West Virginia 552
28 Alabama 537
29 Louisiana 511
30 Mississippi 500
31 Oklahoma 476
32 Arkansas 473
33 Texas 469
34 New Jersey 436
35 New Hampshire 432
36 Pennsylvania 428
37 California 401
38 Maryland 379
39 Washington 360
40 New York 357
41 Florida 354
42 Oregon 327
43 Massachusetts 325
44 North Carolina 316
45 Georgia 262
46 South Carolina 259
47 Virginia 251
48 Puerto Rico 181
49 District of Columbia 178
50 Maine 170
51 Vermont 110
52 Hawaii 41

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,923
2 New York 1,759
3 Massachusetts 1,563
4 Connecticut 1,413
5 Louisiana 1,388
6 Rhode Island 1,302
7 Mississippi 1,288
8 North Dakota 1,259
9 South Dakota 1,071
10 Illinois 1,039
11 Michigan 977
12 District of Columbia 970
13 Arizona 918
14 Georgia 871
15 Indiana 871
16 Florida 869
17 South Carolina 855
18 Arkansas 832
19 Pennsylvania 829
20 Delaware 797
21 Iowa 776
22 Maryland 772
23 Texas 765
24 New Mexico 757
25 Alabama 741
26 Nevada 708
27 Missouri 672
28 Tennessee 671
29 Montana 654
30 Minnesota 651
31 Wisconsin 623
32 Nebraska 561
33 Ohio 560
34 Colorado 544
35 Idaho 540
36 Kansas 535
37 North Carolina 507
38 California 489
39 Virginia 479
40 Kentucky 469
41 Oklahoma 444
42 West Virginia 422
43 Wyoming 397
44 New Hampshire 388
45 Washington 384
46 Puerto Rico 351
47 Utah 277
48 Oregon 222
49 Hawaii 170
50 Maine 159
51 Alaska 158
52 Vermont 115

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 17
2 Nebraska 11
3 Rhode Island 10
4 Indiana 9
5 Michigan 9
6 Missouri 9
7 Montana 9
8 New Mexico 9
9 Idaho 8
10 Illinois 8
11 Wisconsin 8
12 Wyoming 8
13 Colorado 7
14 Connecticut 7
15 Iowa 7
16 Pennsylvania 7
17 West Virginia 7
18 Arkansas 6
19 Mississippi 6
20 Nevada 6
21 Kentucky 5
22 Maine 5
23 Minnesota 5
24 Alabama 4
25 Delaware 4
26 Louisiana 4
27 Massachusetts 4
28 New Jersey 4
29 Ohio 4
30 Puerto Rico 4
31 Tennessee 4
32 Texas 4
33 Washington 4
34 District of Columbia 3
35 Florida 3
36 Kansas 3
37 Maryland 3
38 Oklahoma 3
39 Oregon 3
40 South Carolina 3
41 Arizona 2
42 Georgia 2
43 New York 2
44 North Carolina 2
45 South Dakota 2
46 Utah 2
47 Vermont 2
48 California 1
49 New Hampshire 1
50 Virginia 1
51 Alaska 0
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 204,752 1 99
Norton Kansas 203,693 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 197,942 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 192,661 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 190,187 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 67,940 502 84
Richland South Carolina 49,392 1230 60
York South Carolina 35,326 2040 35
Orange California 25,705 2528 19
Pierce Washington 20,476 2732 13

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,952 3 99
Hancock Georgia 5,439 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 5 99
Richland South Carolina 726 1297 58
Davidson Tennessee 609 1547 50
Orange California 497 1823 41
York South Carolina 488 1852 41
Pierce Washington 355 2219 29

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons